Real estate market July 2025: stable outlook and opportunities

While 2025 marked a cautious but encouraging turning point, July confirms a form of consolidation for the French real estate market. After two years of decline, prices are stabilizing, credit rates remain favorable, and transaction volumes are rising timidly. But the big question remains: when should you buy? This article deciphers the current situation and proposes the keys to act in an informed manner.

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🏘️ Price analysis

National situation: stabilization and small increases

Between April and July 2025, the old housing market in metropolitan France showed positive momentum. Notaries point to a virtual stabilization of prices with a slight increase of +0.4% to +0.5% over three months, after four quarters of continuous decline. According to INSEE, the annual increase has now reached +0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, with +0.7% for apartments and +0.3% for houses.

Source: Insee.

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Focus on Île‑de‑France and Paris

In Île-de-France, the recovery is sharper: sales rebounded by +21% in the first quarter of 2025 (to nearly 29,200 goods) and prices are expected to increase by +3.2% for apartments and +2.8% for homes between April and July according to the projections of notaries. In Paris, the average price per m² of apartments reaches €9,510 in April and is estimated at €9,780 in summer, i.e. an increase of +2.9% over one year.

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💶 Credit rate

Current data: reassuring stability

In July 2025, real estate rates showed real stability, which reassured borrowers. According to CAFPI, we observe average rates of 3.04% over 15 years, 3.18% over 20 years and 3.28% over 25 years, confirming a favourable plateau that began in spring. This trend is supported by Pretto, which reveals “best profile” rates reaching 2.84% over 15 years, 2.90% over 20 years, and 2.95% over 25 years, stressing the importance of a good financial situation.

Source: Notarie.fr.

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Half-year comparison

Over the first six months of 2025, rates initially fell to 2.65% (15 years), 2.75% (20 years), 2.99% (25 years) in April, before stabilizing around 2.90%, 2.95%, and 3.05% respectively in July. This development shows that spring allowed borrowers to benefit from low rates, while summer marked a strategic pause point. The most attractive rates are now available through negotiations or brokers.

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Regional zoom

Rates vary slightly by region. In Île-de-France, the average rate over 20 years reached 3.18%, 0.40 points less than Brittany, which is used as a reference. In addition, the best profiles in regions such as Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur or Occitanie can negotiate conditions close to 3.00%, in particular thanks to local banks that are aggressive in their rates.

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📊 Trading volume: the rebound is real

After a difficult year, the French antique market is regaining momentum. According to notaries, the volume of transactions over the last twelve months reached approximately 803,000 acts at the end of February 2025, thus recording a rise compared to the low of October 2024 (777,000) and approaching the level of April 2024. For its part, INSEE estimates the volume at 880,000 transactions at the end of March 2025, a significant increase since the end of 2022.

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In Île‑de‑France: a marked boom

The Ile-de-France market is showing even more sustained dynamism. In the first quarter of 2025, the number of signed acts jumped by +21% in one year, or 29,190 sales (including 21,060 apartments +20%, and 8,130 houses +25%). However, this rebound is based on historically low bases: the volume remains at 10% withdrawal compared to the first quarter of 2023.

Source: Paris Chamber of Notaries.

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What the numbers say

These trends show that the old market has stabilized, stopping a downward cycle that began in 2021. The resumption of financing, with access to credit once again possible, is the engine of this recovery. Despite the strength of the rebound, volumes remain modest compared to pre-crisis levels: these signals encourage caution, especially in the face of solvency weaknesses and economic uncertainties.

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🌱 Why this stability?

The current immobility of real estate rates is the result of several converging factors. First of all, the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted an accommodative posture by continuing to lower its key rates: it went from 4% to 2% between June 2024 and June 2025, with a further reduction of 0.25 points on June 5. This policy aims to boost growth while keeping inflation close to but below its 2% target.

At the same time, bond rates, especially 10-year OATs, have stabilized around 3.20%, offering a stable benchmark for banks to set their own loan rates. This double movement: accommodating ECB and controlled bond market allowed banks to offer real estate rates around 3%, with no upward pressure.

Finally, competition between financial institutions to attract new customers (first-time buyers, solid profiles) also contributes to this stability. Banks are now more accommodating, but are not afraid to protect their margins.

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🔮 Predictions for the rest of 2025

Optimistic scenario

If the European Central Bank maintains its accommodative monetary policy, as it did in June by lowering its key rates to 2%, and if inflation remains under control around the 2% target, real estate rates could still fall slightly. According to Hosman, after rising from over 4% in early 2023 to around 3.3% at the end of 2024, rates stabilized between 3% and 3.5% in mid-2025. This dynamic, if continued, would provide an environment favourable to a sustainable market recovery.

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Pessimistic scenario

On the other hand, if bond rates (10-year OATs) rose significantly above 3.5%; as happened in the spring or if inflation remained persistent, banks could be forced to raise their rates. This could block the recovery of credit, causing market stagnation or even a slowdown.

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Things to look out for

1. ECB decisions : any further reduction in key rates would relaunch the downward financing dynamic.
2. Inflation in the eurozone and 10-year OAT rates : stable OATs around 3.2% to 3.3% are already a stabilizing factor.
3. Regulatory and fiscal developments : adjustments to subsidized loans, energy standards or transfer taxes can reshuffle the cards of the real estate market (especially for first-time buyers).

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🛠️ Practical advice

When to act?

July 2025 promises to be an interesting time to start a real estate project. Prices are generally stable, credit rates remain attractive and professional support can make a difference. However, don't forget to monitor macroeconomic indicators: a rise in inflation or a tightening of the ECB's monetary policy could quickly reverse the trend.

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Project targeting

For first-time buyers, it is now or never time to use devices such as the PTZ, accessible everywhere in France provided they respect certain resources and types of property (new or old with work). With rates close to 3%, these profiles are particularly attractive for banks. Investors, for their part, must focus their strategy on sectors that combine good returns, strong rental demand and contained prices. Read the regional barometers and zoom in on cities with potential.

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File preparation and monitoring

A well-written file is the basis: contribution, guarantees, insurance are well suited to banks and facilitate rapid validation. Even before the visits, start with an online borrowing capacity simulation—free tools like those from CAFPI or Crédit Agricole are very useful. This allows you to know your budget and to present a serious banking certificate, a real asset in the face of the seller or agent.

In addition, subscribe to the barometers published regularly by notaries or FNAIM, as well as to the views of brokers such as CAFPI or Pretto. This monitoring will allow you to detect opportunities at the right price and to anticipate market developments.

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✅ Conclusion

In July 2025, the real estate market reflects a balance between caution and opportunities: prices are stabilizing, credit rates remain attractive around 3%, and volumes are recovering significantly. For those who are seriously preparing, this is a favorable time to make a project a reality.

👉 Your next step : optimize your file, define your search criteria, and get started. Don't wait for conditions to harden: get professional support to maximize your chances.

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❓ FAQ

1. What is the best time to renegotiate your mortgage?‍

The ideal period is when rates drop below your current APR. In July 2025, they are stabilizing between ~ 3.05% and 3.28% (for 15—25 years), so if you are near or above these levels, renegotiating may be interesting.

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2. Is rental investment still profitable in 2025?‍

Yes, national gross profitability reached around 5.2%, compared to 4.6% in July 2022, thanks to a combination of falling prices (-4.9%) and rising rents (+8%).

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3. Are rates expected to fall further by the end of 2025?‍

If the ECB keeps its rates stable and inflation stays under control, real estate rates could fall a bit lower, offering an attractive window for borrowers.